Forrester

2024 saw AI mistakes dominate the headlines as bad actors spread wide across the world, from the anticompetitive cases reigning in big tech to electoral manipulation and disinformation on social media. As AI and emerging technology mistakes loom over headlines and companies’ shoulders, organizations are building the plane as they fly. Executives are learning new lessons about AI and tech responsibility on a daily basis, all in the name of earning consumer and customer trust. But not all countries have the same (or any) rules for AI, which means that not all companies are playing the same game. Patchy AI standards and regulations across the globe will result in some organizations faring better than others when it comes to building and maintaining trust. In 2025, as leaders attempt to navigate these uneven pockets of trust, Forrester predicts that: Trust in government will rise 10% post-2024 elections — briefly. With several major political elections in 2024, almost half of the world population will have voted in a national election. Disinformation and social manipulation by foreign state-based actors have fueled distrust in democratic institutions — in nine of 11 G20 countries we surveyed, more online adults reported they do not trust that the government will follow through on their promises than those who reported that they do. After a politically uncertain, sometimes contentious election year, 2025 will see transitions of power begin to restore trust in government globally. This bump in trust will be short-lived, however. The honeymoon halo will wear off just as the newly elected governments begin to grapple with more serious challenges that can’t be solved quickly. Regulated and unregulated industries will diverge on trust. Two types of trust will emerge: enforced trust and performative trust. Regulated industries such as financial services and healthcare will live within enforced trust — where government regulations and oversight set the standards for transparency and accountability. On the other hand, unregulated industries will operate in the environment of performative trust, where they’re not required by law to act in ways to build trust but instead are motivated by fear of brand damage, public condemnation, and other potential financial loss. In 2025, Forrester predicts a divergence of trust between these two types of industries in which regulated industries maintain current levels of trust while nonregulated industries see levels of trust erode. AI-powered skill intelligence and career tools will increase employees’ trust in AI. One realization companies had in the brouhaha of AI was that a big portion of their employee base required reskilling (learning completely new skills for emerging jobs) or upskilling (learning additional skills in their existing jobs). Forrester’s 2024 data shows that among the skills that global business and tech professionals say they need most to support their organization’s modernization in the next 12 months is skills in data and analytics. Familiarity breeds trust, as progressive organizations will leverage AI to analyze their workforce’s skill data to solve complex challenges such as talent redeployment, upskilling or reskilling, and to help scale employee experience initiatives that currently require too much manual effort. If you’re a Forrester client, check out the Predictions 2025: Trust report. There, you can read all five of our 2025 trust predictions in full and get more details on what they mean for you and your organization in the upcoming year. Set up a Forrester guidance session with us to discuss how to apply these predictions and best practices to stay ahead of trust in 2025. If you aren’t yet a Forrester client, you can visit our Predictions 2025 hub to register for webinars and download one of our complimentary Predictions guides, which provide more insight into our predictions for 2025. source

It’s the onset of Forrester’s Predictions season, and in 2025, we expect the normally slow-moving technology infrastructure space to see significant disruption, with changes driven by accelerated appetite for all things AI. Firms have sky-high expectations from AI, encouraging their investments to explore its potential in pilots and experimentation. We believe that 2025 is the year whe businesses start to demonstrate real return on investment and concrete value to justify the hype and expense of their AI initiatives. In addition, the devastating CrowdStrike outage in 2024 highlighted the importance of addressing risk, resiliency, and modern security practices. Tech infrastructure and ops professionals must be ready to respond to all of these trends. As a team, we debated a variety of predictions for technology infrastructure and operations in 2025, and here are three of them: A major high-tech vendor will scale back its AI infrastructure investment by 25%. Driven by supply shortages, unmet expectations, and investor pressure, a major tech vendor will reign in AI infrastructure investment in 2025. Demand for AI chips and servers — fueled by generative AI — has outpaced vendors’ ability to deliver. In addition, despite billions of dollars invested in AI infrastructure and generative AI in 2023, only 20% of businesses reported earnings benefits from AI in 2024. The gap between AI infrastructure investment and tepid returns will lead to a major tech vendor such as Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, or IBM reducing their AI infrastructure investments by 25% in 2025. This will embolden others to reduce their investments, and that will cascade through the market. Tech leaders should expect this to place further strain on the availability of AI services and infrastructure in 2025. VMware customers will shrink 40% of their VMware deployments in favor of the cloud. In 2025, VMware’s largest 2,000 customers will shrink their deployment size by an average of 40%. This reduction will be driven by increased migration to the public cloud, on-premises alternatives, and new architecture. Despite firms’ interests in private cloud due to digital sovereignty and cost concerns, VMware continues to face challenges. Broadcom’s price increases and cost-cutting measures are expected to boost its net profits, as there are not many credible competitors capable of helping clients replace VMware virtualization. Tech leaders should follow our advice on dealing with alternatives to VMware and consider how they manage their VMware investments and any alternatives. Self-service will overtake humans as the preferred first-contact channel for service desks. Positive sentiment around the self-service help desk is growing thanks to product improvements and increased comfort working alongside AI systems like ChatGPT. Forrester predicts that in 2025, 50% of businesses will enable the self-service help desk as the first-contact touchpoint. Improvements, such as digital employee experience-driven automated endpoint troubleshooting and enterprise service management formalizing workflows, are expanding what self-service can do. When combined with large language models, self-service can now handle complex tasks like device troubleshooting. Forrester clients can read our full Predictions 2025: Tech Infrastructure And Operations report to get more detail about each of these predictions and read additional predictions. Set up a Forrester guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan out your 2025 infrastructure and operations strategy. If you aren’t yet a client, you can download our complimentary Predictions guide, which covers more of our top technology and security predictions for 2025. Get additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2025 hub. source

Les leaders du B2B ont passé une grande partie de l’année dernière à se démener pour tirer parti de la technologie de l’IA générative (genAI) et trouver de nouveaux moyens de se différencier. En 2025, le véritable pouvoir de l’IA générative en tant que moteur de croissance sera mis à l’épreuve. La responsabilité des leaders du marketing, des ventes et des produits va s’intensifier : les entreprises se tournent désormais vers ces fonctions pour piloter les initiatives de genAI les plus impactantes de leur organisation. Les prévisions pour 2025 de Forrester pour les équipes marketing, commerciales et de produit B2B préparent les organisations à faire face aux bons, mauvais et même horribles résultats, lorsqu’ils essaieront de générer de la valeur à partir de cette technologie émergente. Voici ce qu’il faut savoir à l’aube de cette nouvelle année : Le bon : les assistants d’IA vont devenir des collaborateurs précieux dans deux organisations sur cinq. Alors que les assistants IA deviennent plus intelligents, les organisations B2B devraient continuer à tirer parti de leurs capacités d’automatisation croissantes pour aider les employés à mieux faire leur travail. L’étude Marketing Survey, 2024, de Forrester montre que les investissements dans les solutions d’automatisation des conversations B2B continueront de croître. 64 % des leaders mondiaux du marketing B2B prévoyant d’augmenter leurs dépenses dans cette technologie au cours de l’année prochaine. Il est temps pour les employés de perdre le récit – et la peur – que les assistants IA remplacent leur travail, du moins pour l’instant. L’amélioration des capacités prédictives, conversationnelles et génératives fera évoluer les assistants d’IA vers des agents autonomes et adaptables. Adoptez le bon côté des choses et commencez à vous appuyer sur l’IA pour stimuler la productivité. Le moins bon : le temps de vente actif va diminuer de 10 %, car les initiatives de productivité de l’IA générative auront l’effet inverse. Les organisations continueront d’augmenter leurs investissements dans l’IA afin d’obtenir un retour sur investissement positif. Les investissements ne seront pas tous financiers : l’adoption de la technologie genAI et l’adaptation aux nouvelles méthodes qui génèrent de la valeur entraîneront dans un premier temps un surcroît de travail en interne. Les responsables commerciaux ont poussé les vendeurs à enregistrer les interactions, une exigence pour la valeur de la genAI, mais l’analyse du pipeline à partir de nos études d’activité montre que cet effort a souvent échoué. L’attente d’une productivité en cours d’année conduira les organisations à restreindre les embauches, obligeant les équipes de vente à travailler plus dur. Préparez-vous à prendre du recul et à vous concentrer sur l’organisation de vos données. Cela vous permettra de faire deux pas en avant grâce à la genAI. Le pire : Les CMO et CSO auront pour objectif de se réorganiser mais la moitié d’entre eux ne parviendront pas à résoudre leurs problèmes. Les organisations sont contraintes de recourir à des initiatives de transformation, à des mesures de gestion du changement et à des modifications induites par l’IA pour stimuler la croissance. Seuls 12 % des responsables marketing interrogés dans le cadre de l’enquête Q4 2023 Demand Marketing Organizational Design And Process Survey de Forrester estiment que la conception organisationnelle actuelle de leurs équipes les aidera à atteindre efficacement leurs objectifs de chiffre d’affaires au cours de l’année à venir. Beaucoup tenteront une restructuration pour essayer de remédier à ce manque de compétences. Mais se contenter de déplacer les rôles sous des intitulés différents est un changement superficiel qui fait plus de mal que de bien. Concentrez-vous plutôt sur les changements qui s’imposent depuis longtemps : Réinitialiser la stratégie et la planification pour s’orienter vers le client, réparer les processus de revenus défaillants, améliorer l’efficacité opérationnelle, renforcer la confiance des parties prenantes et améliorer les talents afin de combiner les compétences humaines et techniques. Les entreprises qui réussissent modifieront les aptitudes et les compétences requises pour un poste, et pas seulement son intitulé. En 2025, les organisations B2B vont enfin pouvoir tirer parti des avantages de l’IA. Les entreprises qui réussiront s’attaqueront aux défis liés à l’infrastructure et réorienteront leurs ressources tout en résistant à l’envie de licencier des effectifs pour satisfaire la pression des rendements financiers. Consultez notre rapport complet Predictions 2025 : B2B Marketing, Sales, And Product  (en anglais) pour obtenir plus de détails sur chacune de ces prévisions et en découvrir d’autres. Planifiez une session d’accompagnement Forrester pour discuter de ces prévisions ou planifier votre stratégie B2B 2025. Si vous n’êtes pas encore client, vous pouvez télécharger notre guide gratuit sur les prévisions B2B (en anglais), qui présente d’autres prévisions pour 2025. Vous trouverez d’autres ressources gratuites, y compris des webinaires, sur le hub Prévisions 2025. Note: Cet article a été traduit. Langue originale : anglais. source

The upcoming year will see investment firms wrestle with restless offspring and technologies that have moved from “emerging” to “almost there.” In other words, 2025 will feel like a centuries-old industry has just hit its teens. The impact of continuing wars, the “great wealth transfer,” and the US election will reverberate well into the new year. Uncertainty and change will inspire wealth management firms to try innovative digital approaches to keep younger investors, embrace AI (finally!), and go “all in” on tokenized assets. Forrester believes that forward-looking wealth management executives will see these predictions as opportunities and be ready to act on them in 2025: AI is ready for prime time, and a firm will acquire an upstart focused on AI-driven advice. Last year, we said that AI is not yet ready for prime time in wealth management. As 2025 approaches, AI technologies and their underlying large language models continue to mature and become more explainable. Startups in this space are leveraging AI as a way to give advisors more “intelligence” by pulling together external and internal research to create natural language explanations for their investment recommendations. Incumbent wealth management firms are now believers that “there’s an AI for that” when it comes to optimizing advisor effectiveness and will target a startup with AI-driven advisory strategies. Money is in motion, and digitally savvy investment firms will have the customer experience needed to keep it “in the house.” The “great wealth transfer” is underway, as approximately $84 trillion will pass from Baby Boomers to their children in the United States alone in the next 20 years. The challenge for wealth management firms is that younger investors are more digitally savvy, conduct their own research, and make impact-oriented investing decisions. Our research shows that firms offer a fragmented user experience, including a long, clunky, paper-heavy process when assets transfer from one generation to another. During this “moment that matters,” inheritors will find it frustrating and increasingly seek out firms that seamlessly integrate human and digital touchpoints. As a result, firms that mistakenly segment customers based on assets, rather than financial behaviors and attitudes about digital, will struggle to keep the money “in the house.” The number of major banks issuing tokenized assets on blockchain will double. Driven by new digital asset regulations, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE have set clear requirements for managing the risk of this technology, and we expect that the EU and US will follow suit in 2025. HSBC launched a digital “Gold Token” in Hong Kong that’s accessible to millions of customers with just a few clicks on their smartphones. This initiative and others are likely to spur other banks to join the race. To stay competitive, forward-thinking banks will prioritize tokenized assets and develop teams, processes, and technologies to support them. Read our full Predictions 2025: Investing And Wealth Management report to get more detail about each of these predictions and read additional predictions. Set up a Forrester inquiry or guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan out your 2025 strategy. If you aren’t yet a client, you can download our complimentary Predictions guides, which cover more of our top predictions for 2025. Get additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2025 hub. source

Banks need to get ready for a major challenge in 2025: a simultaneous decline in customer experience (CX) and worsening profitability. But fear not, because there is a solution to this double whammy: innovation. After a turbulent 2023 marked by three bank failures, we saw more stability in 2024, if not exorbitant returns. Larger institutions were able to bolster narrowing net interest margins with investment banking and wealth management fees, but no one expects profits to return to 2022 and 2023 levels. 2024 also saw bank CX quality decline: US banking CX quality fell for the third year in a row, Australia banking CX quality was the lowest ever, and banking CX quality in the EU dropped significantly from 2023. This matters, because as CX quality declines, so does customer loyalty. Banking executives must step up their game on product and service innovation, particularly in the areas of conversational banking and deposit offerings, if they want to stay competitive and earn customer loyalty. It won’t be an easy ride, as legacy infrastructures and vexatious regulatory compliance issues will put a damper on the innovation party. But with determination, strategic thinking, and investments in next-generation digital platforms, banks can overcome these obstacles and pave the way for a more innovative and customer-centric banking experience. In 2025, we foresee that: Conversational banking will finally take off. 2025 will be a breakthrough year for conversational banking: Leaders will use AI capabilities to make their in-app bots smarter and more useful to customers. Features such as helping customers navigate the app, providing assistance, and offering personalized financial guidance will become more common. Banks will need to design their conversational assistants well, implement AI governance, and invest in rearchitecting their conversational AI systems to mitigate implementation risks. Deposit innovation will emerge, by way of “save now, pay later.” The adoption of “save now, pay later” (SNPL), also known as “save now, buy later,” has been growing in countries like India, offering customers an alternative way to earn returns on their savings. Its uptake in Western markets has been limited so far, however. We anticipate that Klarna’s new SNPL offering will inspire other companies with robust merchant ecosystems to introduce SNPL options in Western markets. With intense competition for customers’ savings, banks must innovate and explore new solutions to provide economic value. Failing to do so could lead to being left behind, as we’ve seen with the “buy now, pay later” trend. Real-time processing will become the norm but won’t drive innovation on its own. By 2025, real-time processing will be the default worldwide for financial transactions such as payments, funding, open banking, fraud assessment, and cross-border money movement, but its widespread adoption won’t immediately lead to innovative products and CX improvements. Financial institutions need to prioritize the development of value-added products and services on top of real-time infrastructure to meet customer expectations, gain a competitive edge, and shape the future of real-time processing. Read our full Predictions 2025: Banking report to get more detail about each of these predictions and read additional predictions. Set up a Forrester inquiry or guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan out your 2025 strategy. If you aren’t yet a client, you can download our complimentary Predictions guides, which cover more of our top predictions for 2025. Get additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2025 hub. source

Anlagenintensive Branchen wie das verarbeitende Gewerbe und das Transportwesen spüren es sofort schmerzhaft, wenn die Energiepreise steigen, der Zugang zu Rohstoffen schwieriger wird oder die Kredite für Investitionsprojekte teurer werden. Im Jahr 2024 waren sie nicht nur von diesen Faktoren, sondern auch noch von weiteren Einschränkungen betroffen. Dadurch waren die Verantwortlichen dazu gezwungen, sich noch mehr als sonst auf Kostenmanagement und Effizienzsteigerung zu konzentrieren. Im Mobilitätssektor verlangsamte sich in vielen Ländern der scheinbar unvermeidliche Übergang von fossilen Brennstoffen zur Elektrifizierung, da viele Käufer angesichts der Kombination aus sinkenden Subventionen, hohen Vorlaufkosten, lückenhafter Infrastruktur und drohenden Zöllen zögerten. Wir erwarten nicht, dass sich die weltweite makroökonomische Situation im Jahr 2025 dramatisch verbessern wird, aber wir sehen viele Möglichkeiten für führende Unternehmen in den Bereichen Fertigung und Mobilität, sich mithilfe verschiedener Technologien an das schwierige Umfeld anzupassen, in dem sie und ihre Kunden sich befinden. Für 2025 sagen wir Folgendes voraus: Mehr als 25 % der großen Last-Mile-Service- und Lieferflotten in Europa werden elektrisch sein. Berichte über einen dramatischen Rückgang der Verkaufszahlen für Elektrofahrzeuge 2024 sind insbesondere in Deutschland und einigen anderen europäischen Ländern allgegenwärtig. Man könnte viel über die kurz- und langfristigen Trends sagen, die dabei eine Rolle spielen, aber hinter dieser Schwankung auf dem Automarkt verbergen sich eigentlich gute Nachrichten für die Elektrifizierung größerer Kleintransporter-Flotten. Ein Drittel der Last-Mile-Flotte von DPD in Großbritannien ist vollelektrisch, in Städten wie London sind es sogar 90 %. Das britische Energieunternehmen British Gas will seine gesamte Lieferwagenflotte bis 2025 elektrifizieren. Amazon betreibt in Deutschland mehr als 1.000 elektrische Lieferwagen (und über 15.000 in den USA). Überall auf dem Kontinent sehen Paketzusteller, Versorgungsunternehmen und Kommunalverwaltungen, die große Kleintransporter-Flotten für relativ kurze Strecken betreiben, die Elektrifizierung als Möglichkeit zur Senkung von Kosten und CO2-Ausstoß. Weniger als 5 % der in Fabriken und Lagern eingesetzten Roboter werden laufen. Investoren, Analysten, Journalisten, Blogger und Science-Fiction-Fans lieben Geschichten über Roboter, die laufen können. Allerdings gibt es viel weniger Anwendungsfälle für eine echte Nutzung dieser Beine, als die meisten dieser Personen glauben. ANYbotics und Boston Dynamics bieten vierbeinige Roboter für Inspektions-, Sicherheits- und Zuordnungsaufgaben an. Die zweifüßigen Roboter von Agility Robotics kommen in einigen Amazon-Lagern zum Einsatz und Boston Dynamics, Figur und Tesla haben ihre humanoiden Roboter in Automobilwerken getestet. Diese Roboter sind vielleicht für einen Wow-Effekt gut, allerdings sind sie eher nicht der beste Formfaktor für langweilige, schmutzige und gefährliche Industriearbeiten. Wir sollten uns daher alle mehr auf die Aufgabe konzentrieren, die wir erledigen möchten, und weniger darauf, wie cool der Roboter aussieht. Ein großer Autohersteller wird sein Digitalteam erheblich verschlanken. Der Automobilsektor kämpft mit der Elektrifizierung, den in schnellem Tempo agierenden neuen Marktteilnehmern und dem Aufkommen des „softwaredefinierten Fahrzeugs“, bei dem immer mehr Hard- und Software in das Fahrzeug integriert wird. Etablierte Autohersteller haben Milliarden Dollar in den Aufbau digitaler Praktiken investiert, die dazu dienen sollten, die Spitzenleistungen der physikalischen Ingenieurswissenschaften des 20. Jahrhunderts in ein exzellentes digitales Engineering des 21. Jahrhunderts zu transformieren. Man muss jedoch sagen, dass es nicht besonders gut läuft. General Motors hat angekündigt, in diesem Jahr 1.000 Mitarbeiter seiner Software- und Service-Abteilung zu entlassen. Es ist anzunehmen, dass seine Wettbewerber diesem Beispiel folgen werden. Autos werden nicht nur immer vernetzter und digitaler, sondern es ist auch möglich, ihnen mithilfe von Over-the-Air-Updates neue Funktionen hinzuzufügen. Die Zukunft der Mobilität wird durch Ökosysteme geprägt und die Automobilhersteller von heute müssen sich auf eine Zukunft einstellen, in der sie die digitalen Erlebnisse in ihren Fahrzeugen möglicherweise nicht mehr selbst gestalten oder gar kontrollieren. Lesen Sie unseren vollständigen Report Predictions 2025: Smart Manufacturing and Mobility (auf Englisch), um mehr über die einzelnen Prognosen zu erfahren sowie zwei weitere Prognosen als Extra zu erhalten. Kunden von Forrester können an unserem Webinar am 8. Januar teilnehmen oder ein Beratungsgespräch mit Forrester vereinbaren, um diese Prognosen zu besprechen oder ihre Strategien für Smart Manufacturing und Mobilität zu planen. Wenn Sie noch kein Kunde sind, können Sie einen unserer kostenlosen Guides zu den Prognosen herunterladen, der unsere wichtigsten Prognosen 2025 für verschiedene Bereiche enthält. Holen Sie sich weitere kostenlose Ressourcen, einschließlich Webinare, im Hub für Prognosen 2025. NB: Dieser Blog wurde aus dem Englischen übersetzt. source

While we haven’t talked too much about Amazon Business over the years, it’s been a quiet giant that has already generating over $35 billion in global sales after launching in 2015. That would make it the 300th largest company in the world with more than 10% of Amazon’s online retail business. It’s one of the “fastest-growing ventures in Amazon’s history,” and its size nearly doubles the company’s physical-store business. When we think about the next phase of Amazon retail, it’s really B2B. The company’s recent Reshape event in Dallas for users and partners answered a lot about this large and fast-growing part of the company. Here’s what I learned about this formidable part of Amazon. What Is Amazon Business, Really? It’s easy to think of Amazon Business as a better version of an office supply store like Staples, but that would be selling it short. Yes, it does sell a lot of pens and office supplies (BIC and Uniball were two of Reshape’s biggest sponsors). But just as Amazon.com is way more than books, Amazon Business is much more than a single category. It serves 6 million business accounts around the world with everything imaginable, from medical devices for hospitals and doctor’s offices to packaging and paper supplies for restaurant groups and toner cartridges for schools. The Amazon Business Superpower: Physically And Financially Large Shipments Of Supplies That Ride Amazon’s Fulfillment Network To Commercial Addresses Amazon Business is the polar opposite of Amazon.com, which was built on small one-off transactions to consumers everywhere in the US and much of the world, in turn helping to ingrain the brand in the minds of shoppers everywhere. By contrast, Amazon Business leverages: Large shipments. Amazon is often delivering pallets to enterprise customers such as Aramark. Amazon’s fulfillment network. Amazon already has a dense warehouse footprint, predictive shipping capabilities, and an offering to provide those services to marketplace sellers. Commercial addresses. Amazon is able to use large trucks that pull into loading docks, drop off those pallets, and get the “delivery density” critical for carrier efficiency. This is the dream of any carrier. It even restocks vending machines, which I would bet — with Amazon’s creativity — that the company may make even more efficient with Flex drivers. And that was the key message of the Reshape event: Amazon Business is targeting large enterprises and embedding itself in major procurement systems such as Coupa to bring its commerce flywheel to B2B purchases. As Amazon Business encroaches on enterprise customers with more business purchases, it will invariably need the sales leads and contacts from its AWS business, possibly selling overlapping products and services in the future. Internal channel conflict is a feature — not a bug — of Amazon’s org structure as it empowers small teams to move fast to build new businesses. Where To Next For Amazon Business — And B2B E-Commerce? Given the still-behind state of most other B2B e-commerce sites, Amazon Business may not even need enterprise companies for a while. Today, Amazon Business stands out as a juggernaut with an inherent competitive advantage just with small and medium enterprises. It reminds me of its position in the online advertising world with Amazon Ads. It wouldn’t be surprising if the attention it gets in the future is just as great. Going forward, brands selling to procurement leaders will have no choice but to develop their Amazon Business strategy. Other companies should think of the lessons of Amazon Business: how to leverage existing assets to effectively extend to new categories rapidly. To discuss Amazon Business and what it could mean for your business, please schedule time with Joe Cicman, Christina Schmitt, or me. source

La révolution de l’IA continue de se déployer à un rythme sans précédent, malgré un certain scepticisme cette année quant à la valeur commerciale qu’elle représente. L’attrait des gains rapides et d’un retour sur investissement immédiat des implémentations de l’IA ont conduit de nombreuses personnes à négliger la nécessité d’une stratégie commerciale globale à long terme et de pratiques efficaces de gestion des données. Mais selon l’étude State Of AI Survey, 2024 de Forrester, deux tiers des personnes interrogées estiment que leur organisation aurait besoin d’un retour sur investissement inférieur à 50 % pour considérer que leurs investissements dans l’IA sont couronnés de succès. Ceci nous ramène à la réalité. Les entreprises doivent élaborer une stratégie en matière de données et d’IA qui porte non seulement sur l’impact commercial et le retour sur investissement, mais qui se concentre également sur les principes de l’IA, la gouvernance, les talents, les opérations et l’activation des cas d’usage appropriés. En 2025, les leaders de l’IA devront prendre conscience qu’il n’y a pas de raccourci vers le progrès de l’IA et qu’il est impératif de s’y préparer. Notre nouveau rapport sur les prévisions sur l’IA souligne l’importance de conjuguer les stratégies de données et d’IA, de réunir l’expertise commerciale et technique, et de s’appuyer sur des partenaires pour atteindre l’excellence. Voici trois de nos prévisions sur l’IA pour 2025 : La plupart des entreprises focalisées sur le retour sur investissement de l’IA réduiront prématurément leurs activités. Malgré l’enthousiasme suscité par la transformation induite par l’IA, une remise à zéro majeure se profile à l’horizon. L’attente de retours immédiats sur les investissements dans l’IA verra de nombreuses entreprises réduire leurs efforts plus tôt qu’elles ne le devraient. Ce recul risque de freiner la croissance et l’innovation à long terme, car les dirigeants se rendent compte que le retour sur investissement de l’IA s’étalera sur une période plus longue que celle initialement prévue. Pour éviter cela, les leaders de l’IA ont besoin de cas d’usage différenciés et d’une stratégie solide qui s’aligne sur les aspirations de l’entreprise et équilibre les gains immédiats avec un retour sur investissement durable. Cela alimentera un cycle vertueux de réinvestissement des premiers succès dans les futurs projets d’IA. 40% des entreprises hautement réglementées combineront la data et la gouvernance de l’IA. La complexité de la gouvernance de l’IA, déjà intense en raison de l’innovation technologique rapide et de l’absence de modèles, de normes ou de certifications universels, devrait encore s’accroître. Avec l’entrée en vigueur de réglementations strictes en matière d’IA, en particulier la loi européenne sur l’IA (EU AI Act) en février 2025, ainsi qu’une demande croissante d’opérations d’IA transparentes, les entreprises hautement réglementées unifieront leurs cadres de gouvernance des données et de l’IA. Ce changement et cette convergence sont nécessaires, et cela va au-delà de la simple conformité. Ils représentent un changement radical vers une approche de l’IA plus intégrée, plus transparente, plus responsable et plus conforme à l’éthique. Trois entreprises sur quatre qui construisent elles-mêmes des architectures “agentiques” ambitieuses sont vouées à l’échec. L’IA agentique est la prochaine grande technologie émergente dans le monde de l’IA. Cependant, les entreprises qui ont l’ambition de construire elles-mêmes des architectures agentiques avancées se heurteront à des obstacles considérables. La principale difficulté réside dans le fait que ces architectures sont complexes, qu’elles nécessitent des modèles divers et multiples, des stacks de génération sophistiquées avec récupération et augmentation, des architectures de données avancées et une expertise de niche. Les entreprises matures reconnaîtront ces limites et choisiront de collaborer avec des fournisseurs de services d’IA et des intégrateurs de systèmes, en tirant parti de leur expertise pour élaborer des solutions agentiques de pointe. Les clients de Forrester peuvent consulter l’intégralité de notre rapport Predictions 2025 : Artificial Intelligence (en anglais) pour obtenir plus de détails sur chacune de ces prévisions, ainsi que deux autres prévisions bonus sur l’évolution du rôle du Chief Data Officer et le passage à l’IA prédictive. Planifiez une session d’accompagnement Forrester pour discuter de ces prévisions avec moi-même et les principaux contributeurs de ce rapport afin de planifier votre stratégie 2025 en matière d’IA, qui placera votre organisation sur la voie de la réussite. Si vous n’êtes pas encore client, vous pouvez télécharger gratuitement notre guide des prévisions (en anglais). Il présente nos principales prévisions pour 2025 dans les domaines de la technologie et de la sécurité. Vous trouverez d’autres ressources gratuites, notamment des webinaires, sur le hub Prévisions 2025. Note: Cet article a été traduit. Langue originale : anglais. source

Regulatory compliance has consistently been a key driver of environmental sustainability commitments. In 2025, amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, corporate strategies across all industries will prioritize profitability and caution. While adherence to regulations will continue as a priority for sustainability leaders, sustainability teams will need to change their focus. Environmental sustainability efforts have always had a sneaky benefit of efficiency that in turn leads to cost savings. It’s time for this sneaky benefit to come out of the shadows and become a primary driver. This means that sustainability teams will need to not only track environmental footprint metrics but also show the money savings. Each year, Forrester makes predictions on specific events that will be at the intersection of various trends shaping the industry. Our 2025 environmental sustainability predictions span trends on the circular economy, employee safety demands by unions, operational efficiencies, regulations on water management, and renewable energy certificates. Here is a glimpse of three of our environmental sustainability predictions for 2025: Operational efficiencies and financial benefits will eclipse regulations as key drivers. Currently, 47% of environmental sustainability decision-makers cite regulatory compliance as the main reason for reporting metrics, according to Forrester’s Q2 2024 IT And Sustainability Survey. But companies advancing in their sustainability strategies, particularly those achieving operational excellence, are finding significant cost savings through improved efficiency and reduced resource consumption. The time of measurable, positive financial impact is here! Organizations should prepare by enhancing their ability to track the financial metrics of sustainability investments focused on operations. More than a third of Global Fortune 100 firms will commit to circular economy goals. The circular economy is becoming as significant as net-zero targets for organizations. In 2024, companies such as IKEA, Cisco, and Dell have integrated circular economy principles into their sustainability strategies. This shift is driven by new ISO standards, European regulations such as the Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR), and customer demand across various industries. Companies that go beyond compliance and embrace opportunities in reducing, reusing, repairing, refurbishing, and recycling will stand out. By 2025, implementing lifecycle assessments will help both employees and customers understand the environmental impact of their product choices. An industry union will demand climate adaptation protections for employees. Outdoor workers, those in hot indoor environments, and emergency responders face increased health risks due to climate change. Despite the US Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA) Heat Illness Emphasis Program, anti-ESG backlash in the US and Europe, the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority, and laws banning heat protections have led companies to abandon adaptation efforts. While last year we predicted that employee action would drive accommodations, the acceleration of climate change and lack of corporate action will lead industry unions to advocate for climate adaptation for workers. Companies should gauge the compounding impact of climate risk on employee experience and operational resilience. Forrester clients can read our full Predictions 2025: Environmental Sustainability report to get more detail about each of these predictions and read additional predictions. Set up a Forrester guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan out your 2025 environmental sustainability strategy. If you aren’t yet a client, you can download our complimentary Predictions guides, which cover more of our top predictions for 2025. Get access to these guides and additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2025 hub. source

As retailers brace for a challenging 2025, technology will play a crucial role in offsetting the impact of waning consumer demand on their business. To be sure, retail overall will continue to grow: Globally, we forecast $24.9 trillion total retail sales in 2025. Of that, $5.3 trillion (or about one-fifth) will be online retail sales specifically, almost two-thirds of which will come from China and the US. Retail growth is reverting to pre-pandemic levels, and businesses across all sectors will face pressure to drive revenue and profit. Factors such as higher wages, lower purchasing power, and increased competition from Chinese merchants like Temu are forcing retailers globally to invest in and explore innovative tech solutions to retain and grow their customer base. A mix of technological advancements and economic realities will shape the retail landscape in 2025. Here is a sampling of some of our predictions for the retail industry in the coming year: One in five US and EMEA retailers will launch customer-facing generative AI applications. Already, 15% of retail and wholesale companies have multiple genAI deployments within their enterprise, per Forrester’s Priorities Survey, 2024. These AI-powered tools will improve both customer outcomes and business efficiencies, particularly in competitive sectors. We expect to see retailers leveraging genAI for enhanced product search, personalized recommendations, and improved category navigation. For their list of potential genAI experiments, savvy retailers start with those that support better site search and navigation or that help to explain recommendations and other content they present to customers that otherwise may seem arbitrary to those shoppers. A few US retailers will implement biometric-powered solutions to curb internal theft. As employee theft becomes a growing concern, retailers with high-value or easily stolen merchandise (e.g., health and beauty products) will invest in biometric identification systems to secure employee-only areas and protect valuable inventory. Which companies are likeliest to invest? Think retailers with recognized security issues and easy-to-steal, high-priced, and/or high-demand assortments (perhaps in drugstore and consumer electronics sectors) that will evaluate and then make the costly investment and ultimately launch internal biometrics use. US grocers’ operating profit margins will decline by 150 basis points or more. Facing higher supplier costs, waning consumer sentiment, and a slowing job market, grocers will struggle to maintain profitability. Revenue growth for US grocers will see significant pressure: US food-at-home inflation has been in the 1.0–1.2% range since January 2024. Grocers will increase promotional activity and adjust the product mix to low-margin essentials to retain market share. They’ll need to implement cost-cutting measures and explore new revenue streams to stabilize their margins. For grocers, that means analyzing and testing potential revenue and margin gains by growing their private-label shelf space, product mix, and retail media offerings. Brands will need to invest in retail media to offset lower share of shelf. To thrive in this challenging environment, retailers must be willing to invest in and experiment with new technologies and strategies. Some initiatives will succeed while others will fail, so the key is to cultivate a culture of innovation and adaptability. Read our full Predictions 2025: Retail report to get more detail about each of these predictions and read additional predictions. Set up a Forrester inquiry or guidance session to discuss these predictions or plan out your 2025 strategy. If you aren’t yet a client, you can download our complimentary Predictions guides, which cover more of our top predictions for 2025. Get additional complimentary resources, including webinars, on the Predictions 2025 hub. source