Is AI Driving Demand for Rare Earth Elements and Other Materials?
Artificial intelligence is changing the world in innumerable ways. But it’s not all chatbots and eerily realistic images. This technology, for all its surreal qualities, has a basis in the material world. The materials that power its capabilities range across the periodic table — from easily accessible elements such as silicon and phosphorus to rare earth elements (REEs), derived from complex purification processes. Rare earth elements are a series of 15 elements ranging from atomic numbers 57–71 on the periodic table called the lanthanide series, along with two other elements (21 and 39) with similar properties. They are divided into light and heavy categories. Heavy rare earth elements, which have higher atomic numbers, are less common. The light rare earths are lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, neodymium, europium, promethium, samarium, and gadolinium. The heavy rare earths are yttrium, terbium, dysprosium, holmium, erbium, thulium, ytterbium, and lutetium. Scandium falls outside the two categories. These metals are not actually rare — they just exist in low concentrations and are difficult to extract. They are crucial components of the semiconductors that provide the computing power that drives AI. They possess uniquely powerful magnetic qualities and are excellent at conducting electricity and resisting heat. Related:Possibilities with AI: Lessons From the Paris AI Summit These qualities make them excellent for graphics processing units (GPUs), application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). REEs are also crucial to sustainable energy production that supposedly offsets the drain on the power grid by AI — notably wind turbines. The market for these metals is expected to reach $10 billion in the next two years. If recent headlines are to be believed, some of these materials are becoming increasingly scarce due to supply chain issues. China has throttled the export of REEs and other critical materials. It produces some 70% of global supply and processes around 90% of REEs. Whether that is a genuine concern is debated. It has certainly resulted in trade tensions between China and the West. But other countries, including the United States, are attempting to ramp up production and prospects in the deep sea may offer additional sources. InformationWeek investigates, with insights from David Hammond, principal mineral economist at chemical manufacturer Hammond International Group, and Ramon Barua, CEO of rare earths supplier Aclara Resources. Which Elements Are Required to Power AI? Related:An AI Prompting Trick That Will Change Everything for You Semiconductors comprise some 300 materials — with REEs and other critical minerals among them. Among the most crucial components are cerium, europium, gadolinium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, scandium, terbium, and yttrium as well as critical minerals gallium and germanium. Some REEs are used in the manufacturing process and others are integrated into the chips themselves — used to dope other materials to alter their conductive properties. The performance of gallium nitride and indium phosphide are enhanced by doping with europium and yttrium, for example. And layers of oxides formed from gadolinium, lanthanum, and lutetium have improved logic and memory performance. The proportions of the materials used in semiconductors are largely trade secrets — and thus the demand for specific REEs and other critical minerals for semiconductors is difficult to determine. But they are likely not the major driver of extraction of these elements. “The usage of rare earths in semiconductors is really a minor aspect of all rare earth demand,” Hammond claims. “I don’t believe it will ever be a major demand driver for rare earths. Less than 10%, probably 5%.” Dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, and terbium are essential components of the magnets used in wind turbines — which comprise a portion of the sustainable energy used to supposedly offset AI energy drain. Hammond thinks that demand for these REEs, also used in generators and solar panels, will be the major driver for extraction and consumption of REEs. Whether that demand will compete with demand from the semiconductor industry remains unknown. Related:How to Regulate AI Without Stifling Innovation “The need for these other applications is probably going to create that marginal supply that is going to be used by semiconductors,” Barua predicts. Additional elements, such as gallium, germanium and compounds such as high-purity aluminum (HPA) are also essential. Common elements including silicon and copper play key roles as well. Demand for copper is expected to grow significantly — by up to a million metric tons in the next five years. Many of these elements, though crucial, are only required in small quantities. “Last year, the US required 19 metric tons of gallium,” Hammond says. “That’s basically 19 pickup trucks of gallium. The panic was so vastly exaggerated to be almost in the realm of stupidity.” How Available Are These Elements? China has a monopoly on REEs, both in terms of extraction and processing. It produced more than 240,000 metric tons in 2023. But REEs are also found elsewhere — the US, Australia, India, Myanmar, Russia, and Vietnam. They are relatively common and usually found together, in varying levels of abundance. China only holds around 40% of the world’s reserves of these minerals. China was not always the primary producer — prior to the 1980s, the US was dominant. But China’s more lax environmental regulations proved advantageous and by the late 1990s had the upper hand in terms of availability and processing technology. While China currently has a stranglehold on supply and processing, other countries are investigating how to leverage their own reserves of REEs. The US and Australia still manage to extract substantial amounts of these minerals. The processing technology required to turn these elements into usable materials is perhaps the most pressing issue — countries that extract REEs usually send them to China for refinement. “The big issue for rare earths isn’t so much finding them. It’s processing them,” Hammond observes. “It requires a challenging chemical process to extract the individual components.” David Hammond, Hammond International Group “The companies producing rare earths are pretty sticky about talking about it — for competitive reasons. But also, nobody really knows what the demand is going to be. Nobody
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