Pew Research Center

Voters overall are divided in their predictions about how Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would perform as president – with negative expectations outweighing positive ones for both candidates. And while majorities of voters see both Trump and Harris as bringing change to Washington – though more say this about Trump than Harris – they are also split over whether that change would have positive or negative effects. Would Trump and Harris be above or below average presidents? Voters are more likely to say each of the presidential candidates would be poor or terrible presidents than to say they would be good or great at the job. More voters today say Trump would be a “good” or “great” president than say this about Harris (41% vs. 36%). But similar shares of voters say each would be a “poor” or “terrible” president (48% say this about Trump, 46% about Harris). Views of a potential second Trump presidency are more polarized than views of a potential Harris presidency: Voters are more likely to say Trump would be great than to say this about Harris (22% vs. 14%). But they’re also more likely to say Trump would be terrible (38%) than to say the same for Harris (32%). Voters are more likely to predict Harris would be an “average” president (18% say this about her, 11% about him). Supporters’ views of their candidate While most supporters of both candidates offer positive predictions about how their candidate would perform as president, Trump supporters are more likely to say a potential Trump presidency would be good or great than Harris’ supporters are to say this about her. 84% of Trump supporters say he would be a good or great president, including 46% who say he would be great. Just 13% say he’d be an average president. 73% of Harris supporters say that she would be a good (44%) or great (29%) president, while 24% say she’d be an average president. Very small shares of each candidate’s supporters (just 2% each) say their candidate would be a poor or terrible president. Supporters’ views of the opposing candidate About nine-in-ten among both Harris supporters (91%) and Trump supporters (89%) predict that the opposing candidate would be a poor or terrible president. Harris supporters are particularly likely to say Trump would be a terrible president (76% say this). By comparison, 67% of Trump supporters predict Harris would be terrible. Who would bring change – for good or bad – to Washington An overwhelming majority of registered voters say that Trump would change the way things work in Washington, but they are fairly divided over whether that change would be for the better or for the worse. While 41% say Trump would change things for the better, a somewhat larger share (48%) say he would change things for the worse. Relatively few (10%) say that he would not change things much either way. In contrast, three-in-ten voters say Harris would not change things much either way in Washington, while 41% say she would change things for the worse and 29% say she would change things for the better. Harris and Trump supporters have different opinions on whether their candidate would change the way things work in Washington: 40% of Harris supporters say that Harris would not change the way things work much in Washington, while 59% say she’d change things for the better. 86% of Trump supporters say Trump would change things for the better. Just 12% say he would not change things much. Overwhelming shares of both Harris (92%) and Trump (83%) supporters say the opposing candidate would change things in Washington for the worse. But Trump supporters are more likely to say Harris would not change things much (16%) than Harris supporters are to say this about Trump (6%). Harris presidency: Biden’s policies versus a new direction Nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) expect Harris to continue President Joe Biden’s policies, while about four-in-ten (41%) expect her to take the country in a different direction. Among the 58% who say Harris would continue Biden’s policies, far more say this would be a bad thing (41%) than say it would be a good thing (16%). Those who say she’ll take the country in a different direction are more likely to say this would be good (30%) than bad (10%). Harris supporters More than half of Harris supporters (58%) say she would take the country in a different direction – and they nearly unanimously view this course positively. About four-in-ten Harris supporters (41%) say that she would continue Biden’s policies and most of this group (33%) say doing so would be a good thing for the country. Trump supporters Conversely, an overwhelming majority of Trump supporters (76%) say Harris would continue Biden’s policies – and this group nearly unanimously sees that as bad for the country. Only about a quarter of Trump supporters (23%) say Harris would take the country in a different direction – and most of this group (19%) say that would be a bad thing. Have Harris and Trump clearly explained their views on issues? When it comes to several major issues, voters are fairly divided on whether the candidates have clearly explained their policies and plans, with two notable exceptions. 75% of all voters say Harris has clearly outlined her views on abortion, including 93% of her supporters and 59% of Trump backers. About six-in-ten voters (61%) also say Trump has been clear about his views on abortion. 70% of all voters say Trump has clearly explained his policies and plans for addressing illegal immigration. Nearly all of his supporters (94%) and about half of Harris’ supporters (48%) say Trump has been clear about his plans on this issue. At least half of each candidate’s supporters say their candidate has clearly outlined their policies and plans for each of the policy domains asked about in the survey. But no more than a quarter of each candidate’s supporters say the other candidate has been

66% of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem in the country Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand Americans’ views of the 2024 presidential election campaign. For this analysis, we surveyed 5,110 adults – including 4,025 registered voters – from Sept. 30 to Oct. 6, 2024. Everyone who took part in this survey is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), a group of people recruited through national, random sampling of residential addresses who have agreed to take surveys regularly. This kind of recruitment gives nearly all U.S. adults a chance of selection. Surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education and other factors. Read more about the ATP’s methodology. Here are the questions used for this report, the topline and the survey methodology. The presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump continues to be deadlocked among all registered voters. And with less than a month until the election, a growing share of voters (86%) say it’s not yet clear who will win on Nov. 5. Looking beyond Election Day, Harris and Trump supporters are deeply divided over the importance of their candidate conceding defeat if they lose. Nearly twice as many Harris supporters (61%) as Trump supporters (32%) say, if their candidate loses next month, it is very important for them to acknowledge the opposing candidate as the legitimate president. There also is a sizable gap in expectations for how each candidate will handle a possible election defeat: 72% of voters overall say if Harris loses – that is, if Trump wins enough votes cast by eligible voters in enough states – she will accept the results and acknowledge Trump’s victory. Virtually all Harris supporters (95%) and about half of Trump supporters (48%) expect Harris to concede. Just 24% say if Trump loses he will concede, while 74% say he will not. About half of Trump supporters (46%) and only 4% of Harris supporters expect Trump to acknowledge Harris as the election winner. The latest national survey by Pew Research Center, conducted among 5,110 adults (including 4,025 registered voters) from Sept. 30 to Oct 6, 2024, finds that the race among all registered voters (not all of whom will vote) is little changed since early September, before the presidential and vice presidential debates held over the last month: 48% favor Harris or lean toward supporting her, while 47% back Trump or lean toward supporting him. Another 5% of voters support or lean toward a third-party candidate. Jump to Chapter 1 for more on voters’ preferences. In further evidence of the tightness of the presidential contest, there are virtually no meaningful differences in the shares of Harris and Trump supporters who say they are certain to back their own candidate, are extremely motivated to vote and that it “really matters” who wins the election. These attitudes are closely associated with voting. However, an analysis of voters who expressed these views prior to the 2020 election and their actual turnout finds that small shares of voters who said they had thought a lot about the candidates, were highly motivated to vote or saw high stakes in the election did not end up voting, while some voters who did not express these views did vote. Views of Harris and Trump as president and prospects for change in the country Voters’ expectations for a Harris or Trump presidency are deeply polarized. This also is the case for opinions about whether each candidate would change the country, for better or worse. More voters express negative than positive views of both candidates as possible presidents. While 36% say Harris would be a good or great president, 18% say she would be average and 46% say she would be poor or terrible. More voters also think Trump would be a poor or terrible president (48%) than a good or great one (41%). Fewer expect Trump to be an average president (11%) than say that about Harris (18%). Compared with Harris, Trump is viewed more widely both as a great and a terrible potential president: 22% of voters say he would be a great president while 14% say this about Harris. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) say Trump would be a terrible president, while fewer (32%) view Harris that negatively. More voters say Trump would change the way things work in Washington (89%) than say that about Harris (70%). However, more voters say both candidates would change Washington for the worse than for the better. Nearly half of voters (48%) say Trump would change Washington for the worse, while 41% say he would bring positive change to the nation’s capital and just 10% say he would not bring much change. By 41% to 29%, more voters say Harris would make things worse than better, while 30% say she would not change things much. Jump to Chapter 2 for more on expectations of potential Harris and Trump presidencies. Other findings: Views of the campaign, concerns over political violence, clearness of candidates’ issues positions, an absence of shared facts Views of the 2024 campaign are mostly negative. Just 19% of voters say the campaign makes them feel proud of the country. That actually is higher than the share who said this in July (12%), with much of the change coming among Harris supporters. Majorities also say the campaign is too negative (71%) and not focused on important policy debates (62%). Still, more than twice as many voters describe the campaign as interesting (68%) than dull (30%). Trump voters are more likely than Harris voters to say the threat of violence against politicians is a major problem. Overall, 66% of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem, while 30% say it is a minor problem. Just 4% think it is not

There is no consensus among Americans about how easy it is to find reliable information about the presidential election. About four-in-ten U.S. adults (39%) say it has been very or somewhat easy to find reliable information about the 2024 presidential election, somewhat larger than the share who have found it very or somewhat difficult (28%). An additional 32% say it has been neither easy nor difficult. By party and ideology Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to say finding reliable information has been easy, while Republicans are more inclined to say it’s been difficult. Around half of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic (52%) say it’s been very or somewhat easy to find reliable information about the 2024 election, compared with 29% of Republicans and Republican leaners who say the same. On the other hand, Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats to say it’s been at least somewhat difficult to find reliable election information (39% vs. 18%). In both parties, views differ by ideology: Conservative Republicans are slightly more likely than Republicans who describe themselves as moderate or liberal to say it’s been difficult to find reliable information (42% vs. 35%). Liberal Democrats are more likely than conservative or moderate Democrats to say that finding reliable information has been easy (62% vs. 44%). Broad assessments of election coverage A majority of Americans (58%) think the news media have covered the 2024 election well, including 13% who think they have covered it very well. On the other hand, 41% say the news media have done not too (26%) or not at all (15%) well covering the presidential race. Americans’ views on campaign media coverage were almost identical at the same point in the 2020 election cycle. By party As in 2020, Republicans are much more critical of election coverage than Democrats. Six-in-ten Republicans say the news media have not covered the 2024 presidential campaign well, compared with just 22% of Democrats who hold this view. And among Republicans, conservatives (69%) are much more likely than those who identify as moderate or liberal (47%) to think the news media are not doing a good job covering the 2024 election. Within each party, responses differ by age group. Among Republicans, those under 30 are more likely than older adults to say that the media are doing at least somewhat well: 51% say this, versus 42% of those ages 30 to 49 and about a third of those ages 50 and older. Among Democrats, the opposite is true: Adults under 30 are less likely than their elders to say the news media are covering the election well, though a 69% majority still say this. Americans’ views of news sources they turn to most for election news Americans are much more positive in their assessments of the sources they turn to most often for news about the presidential election than they are about the news media as a whole. Around eight-in-ten U.S. adults (81%) say the news sources they turn to most often have covered the 2024 election very (27%) or somewhat (54%) well. Far fewer say their go-to sources have covered the presidential election not too (15%) or not at all (3%) well. Americans held similar views about 2020 election coverage by their most common news sources. By party Even when it comes to the news sources they use most often, Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to say these sources have not covered the 2024 election well (22% vs. 11%). But Republicans see their own main sources of election news in a much more positive light than the news media in general. The vast majority of both Republicans (77%) and Democrats (87%) say their most-used news sources have covered this election cycle at least somewhat well. Election news fatigue A majority of Americans (59%) say they are worn out by so much coverage of the 2024 presidential election. This figure has been roughly consistent since we first asked this question in 2016. Meanwhile, about four-in-ten say they like seeing a lot of coverage of the campaign and candidates. Similar to when this question was asked in the spring, those who are following the election more closely are more likely to say that they like seeing a lot of coverage of the campaign and candidates. Republicans and Democrats agree on this: 59% of Americans in each party say they feel worn out by so much coverage of the campaign and candidates. This is a change from April, before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race. At that time, Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to say they felt worn out by so much election coverage (66% vs. 58%). source

ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It does not take policy positions. The Center conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, computational social science research and other data-driven research. Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, its primary funder. source