3. Voters' feelings about the 2024 campaign and election outcomes; concerns about political violence
With less than a month to go until Election Day, voters continue to express mostly negative opinions about the 2024 presidential campaign. Reflecting the closeness of the presidential race, the share of voters who think it is clear which candidate will win – which was already low in July – has edged lower. Harris and Trump supporters differ in their views of the importance of their candidate conceding if they lose, and they have sharply different expectations for how their candidate might handle a defeat. Following two assassination attempts against former President Donald Trump, there are widespread concerns about political violence. A majority of voters say the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem in the country. Campaign widely seen as too negative – but few think it’s dull Voters continue to describe the presidential campaign so far in mostly negative terms: 71% say that the campaign is too negative. Only 27% say it is not too negative. 62% say the campaign is not focused on important policy debates, while 37% say it is. Just 19% say that the campaign makes them feel proud of the country, while 79% say it does not make them feel proud. 68% of voters say the campaign is interesting, while 30% say it is dull. While voters continue to view the campaign negatively across most dimensions, an increasing share say it is focused on important policy debates. Nearly four-in-ten (37%) say it is focused on policy debates, up from 23% in July. Over the same period, the share of voters who say the campaign makes them feel proud of the country also has risen, from 12% to 19%. Views among Harris and Trump supporters For the most part, Harris and Trump supporters express similar views of the 2024 campaign. Majorities of both candidates’ supporters say it is too negative and comparable shares say it is focused on important policy debates. Similar shares of Harris and Trump supporters (20% each) say it makes them feel proud of the country. While majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters find the campaign interesting, Harris supporters are more likely to say this (74% vs. 65%). Since July, the increase in the shares of voters who say the campaign is focused on important policy debates and makes them feel proud has come largely among Harris supporters. Currently, 38% of Harris supporters say it is focused on policy. In July, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee, just 18% of his supporters said this. And while just 20% of Harris supporters say the campaign makes them feel proud of the country, that is nearly double the share of Biden supporters who said this in July (11%). Trump supporters’ views on some of these questions have shown less change. But over this period, there has been a 10 percentage point increase in the share of Trump supporters who say the campaign is too negative (from 61% to 71%). Is it clear who will win the presidential election? With a little less than a month before the 2024 election, just 14% of voters say that it is already clear who is going to win. An overwhelming 86% say it is not yet clear who is going to win. The share who says it is already clear who is going to win is down slightly from September, when 20% said it was already clear who was going to win. As was the case in September, Trump supporters (18%) are somewhat more likely than Harris supporters (10%) to say it is already clear who is going to win. Voters’ emotions if Harris or Trump won Voters overall have largely similar feelings about a possible Trump or Harris win in November. Roughly three-in-ten say they would feel relieved if Trump (33%) or Harris (31%) won in November, while less than two-in-ten say they would feel excited if Trump or Harris won (15% and 17%, respectively). Voters are slightly more likely to say they would feel angry with a possible Trump victory compared with a Harris one (25% vs. 21%, respectively), while they are slightly more likely to say they would feel disappointed with a Harris victory than a Trump one (30% vs. 26%). Among Harris supporters Roughly six-in-ten Harris supporters (62%) say they would feel relieved if Harris won in November, while about a third (35%) say they would feel excited. Harris supporters are more likely to say they would feel excited (35%) about the prospect of a Democratic victory than Clinton (24%) or Biden (23%) supporters were at similar points in the 2016 and 2020 elections. About half of Harris supporters (52%) say they would feel angry if Trump won in November, while 46% say they’d be disappointed. These feelings are nearly identical to the shares of Biden supporters who said the same four years ago (54% angry, 44% disappointed). Among Trump supporters A large majority of Trump supporters say they would feel relieved (65%) or excited (31%) if their preferred candidate won. This is similar to the shares who said they would feel relieved (64%) or excited (31%) in 2020. However, Trump supporters are more likely to say they would feel angry with a Harris victory in November than they were at a similar point in 2020 about a Biden victory (42% today, 31% in 2020). How important is it for Harris, Trump to concede if they lose When asked how important it is for each candidate to concede the election if they lose, majorities of registered voters say it is very or somewhat important for the losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the opposing candidate as the legitimate president of the country. However, Trump supporters are less likely than Harris supporters to say it is important that the losing candidate concede – particularly if Trump is the losing candidate. Majorities of both Harris and Trump supporters say it is important for the other candidate to concede if they lose the election: 87% of Harris
